Play · Base Rates

How do you weigh base rates?

Six Bayesian scenarios. Each one gives you a base rate and a piece of case evidence. Your job is to estimate the probability, as a percentage from 0 to 100. The correct answers come from straight Bayes. Most people weight the case evidence too much and the base rate too little. Takes about five minutes.

Companion reading: Base Rates for the Impatient.

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